Intoxicated
by my success on a football weekend in Nevada in November, I took the risk of
posting my NFL playoff predictions against the spread on Facebook and Twitter
last Saturday. After the first game, in which I took Denver, I was in the hole
and having second thoughts.
A good
gambler, even when there’s no money on the bet, as in this case, has to be
steadfast, methodical and resolute, so I held on to my predictions for the last
three games and ran the table, finishing 3-1 for the weekend. As I replied to
one of my Facebook scoffers, a bet on my four predictions, evenly distributed
among the four games and factoring in the vigorish, would have yielded a 36
percent return on investment in less than 36 hours.
Divisional
playoff weekend in the NFL may be the one time in the pro football season when
there are clear protocols a bettor can follow to increase the chances of doing
well. In any given year, of course, the odds can let you down, but over time
the arc is clear and visible.
Bet the Better Team, Stupid
On
divisional playoff weekend, there are four teams playing at home with a week’s
rest, against teams that played the week before and typically had worse records.
In most years the home teams win three of the four games. You can look it up.
If someone had simply bet on every home team this particular weekend, going
back to when this playoff format went into effect, that person would have done
very well indeed over the long haul.
The other
tendency that occurs on divisional weekend is that because the home teams have
such a strong general advantage, the ones that win tend to do so emphatically,
rendering the point spread irrelevant in most cases. Recognizing this, I pick
the teams I think will win the game and ignore the points. Over time, the
handful of games where the spread is a factor will even out.
You could
go to Vegas divisional playoff weekend, bet on all the home teams, and most
years you’d win or break even. That’s too actuarial for my taste, so I try to figure
out which underdog will pull off an upset.
Identifying the Upset Special
To do that,
I first look at the favorites to see if I can spot a glass jaw. Two things I
particularly look for are a team that had a good record but played over its
head and had a high takeaway/giveaway ratio. That sort of luck typically runs
out in the playoffs. I also look for teams with coaches who are control freaks,
obsessing over defense and special teams but never bothering to get a great
quarterback and great offensive coordinator. They’re ripe for a playoff choke.
On the
underdog side, I look for one thing: A team with a good record (11-5 or better)
that outscored its opponents by 100 points over the course of the year.
Following
those general guidelines, my picks to win this year were Denver, San Francisco,
Seattle and New England. Like a lot of other people, I thought Atlanta would
fold and was a bit embarrassed to win that prediction on points rather than
actual victory. But how was I to know that Seattle (and Denver, for that
matter) would skip their practice sessions on the prevent defense last week?
That’s why they call it gambling.
(Betting advice offered for
entertainment purposes only. No guarantees made or implied, and past
performance is no guarantee of future results.)
